On June 14, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all. I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow.”
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister confirmed the memorandum of understanding on state media. Pakistan’s Prime Minister called it the permanent termination of military operations on all fronts. The formal signing is June 19 in Switzerland.
This is not a statement. It is a signed memorandum with a ceremony scheduled in five days.
This war has moved Bitcoin at every step, from the Apache helicopter crash to the Hormuz toll system to Israel blowing up the first deal to Friday’s update when Iran was still mining tunnels. Now there is a signed memorandum. Here is what that actually changes.
The Three-Link Chain Just Broke
Since February 28, Bitcoin has been trapped by a chain with three links. Closed strait kept oil above $100. Oil above $100 kept inflation elevated. Elevated inflation kept the Fed frozen on rate cuts. Every time Bitcoin tried to break above $82,000 it ran into that chain. Every time it rallied on deal optimism the chain snapped it back.
Oil is at $84 WTI this morning, down from $106 three weeks ago. Brent dropped to $84.15, a 3.64% move on the day alone. If the strait reopens fully on June 19 as agreed, oil has room to fall toward $75 to $78 as Iranian exports return and the geopolitical risk premium drains out.
At $78 oil, the June CPI print starts to look different. Not fixed, not solved, but different enough for the Fed to shift its language. Kevin Warsh walks to the podium Tuesday morning for his first press conference as Fed Chair. We wrote last week that he would be giving that press conference with the strait closed and oil above $89. He is now giving it with a signed memorandum, a ceremony in five days, and oil at $84 and falling.
That is a materially different press conference.
The Institutional Floor Just Came Back
ETF outflows ran for 13 consecutive sessions before today. $5.4 billion left Bitcoin ETFs as institutions reassessed their allocations into a market with no visible catalyst for recovery.
Today, ETF inflows flipped positive. $85.8 million net inflow, $35 million into IBIT, $42 million into FBTC. One day. The institutional floor that had a hole in it for three weeks snapped back the moment the deal was announced.
That is the most important data point of the day. Not the price. The flow. The same institutions that pulled $5.4 billion out came back in on day one of the deal. They were not waiting for a better price. They were waiting for a catalyst. The catalyst arrived.
$170 million in short positions were liquidated in the hours after the announcement. Bitcoin hit $65,695 this morning. The relief rally is real.
What the Chart Looks Like Now
Bitcoin recovering to $65,647 after the RSI hit 14.76, the lowest reading since the COVID crash. The 50-day EMA at $70,700 is the first hurdle. The circled rejection at $82,000 is where the 200-day EMA at $82,000 turned price back in May. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin has been below every major moving average since May. The 200-day sits at $78,500. Getting back above it is the first meaningful technical target and the level that would signal the recovery is structural rather than a bounce.
Between $65,647 today and $78,500 there is work to do. The 50-day EMA at $70,700 is the first hurdle. The 200-day at $78,500 is the confirmation level. The CLARITY Act vote in the Senate is still pending. Warsh’s press conference Tuesday is still a wildcard. The June 19 signing in Switzerland has to actually happen.
But the path to $70,700 and above is now visible in a way it was not a week ago. Three weeks ago oil was at $106 and the Fed was frozen and ETFs were bleeding. Today oil is at $84, a deal is signed in principle, and ETFs turned positive on the first morning.
Every Bitcoin bear market has ended the same way. The macro headwinds clear. The structural buyers return. The moving averages converge and then cross. The on-chain signals that were flashing late-stage bear market conditions in April and May start to resolve.
Not all of those conditions are met yet. The golden cross has not formed. The MVRV Z-Score has not hit the levels that marked previous bottoms.
But the primary external input that made this bear market different from 2019 and 2022 just got removed. Those previous bear markets were crypto-driven. This one had a war underneath it. The war just ended.
That matters more than any chart pattern.
