Bitcoin is down over 40% from its $126,000 all-time high. Sentiment is at multi-year lows. Retail has checked out. Headlines are negative. The fear index says extreme fear and has for weeks.
None of that means the cycle is over. It means most people have stopped looking at the charts that matter.
Three of them are showing the same conditions that appeared at the bottom of the last two major bear markets. Not a prediction. Not financial advice. Just three charts worth understanding before the next move happens.
Chart 1: Bitcoin’s Monthly MACD Is Turning
Bitcoin monthly chart showing the MACD histogram turning light red, the same pattern that appeared at the 2019 and 2022 cycle bottoms – Source: Tradingview
The MACD measures the relationship between two moving averages of price. On the monthly chart, the histogram shows the difference between short-term and long-term momentum. When it runs deep red, selling pressure dominates. When it fades from deep red toward light red, that pressure is exhausting.
Right now the monthly histogram is light red and fading. That specific reading has appeared twice before in Bitcoin’s history.
In late 2018, Bitcoin bottomed at $3,100. The monthly MACD histogram turned light red through early 2019. What followed was a recovery to $13,000 before the next cycle began. In late 2022, Bitcoin bottomed at $15,500 after the FTX collapse. The histogram turned light red through late 2022 and early 2023. What followed was the entire 2023 to 2025 bull run that took Bitcoin to $126,000.
The histogram is in the same zone now. Not deep red anymore. Light red, fading.
That does not mean Bitcoin cannot go lower. It means the selling pressure that drove the decline from $126,000 is starting to exhaust on the monthly timeframe. The two previous times this reading appeared, it marked a cycle bottom within weeks.
Chart 2: Bitcoin Dominance Is Approaching a Key Level
Bitcoin dominance at 59.83% with the RSI dropping below its moving average on the monthly chart, a signal that has historically came before the altseason – Source: Tradingview
Bitcoin dominance measures what percentage of the total crypto market cap Bitcoin controls. It currently sits near 59.83%, up from 39% at the 2021 cycle peak when capital was spread across thousands of altcoins.
That rise makes sense. In uncertain markets, capital concentrates in the most established asset. Bitcoin dominance rising means money is sitting in BTC rather than taking risk on smaller coins. Altcoins bleed against Bitcoin when dominance climbs.
But dominance has never broken above 66% in this cycle and pulled back from that level in June 2025. It now sits at 59.83% and something specific is happening on the monthly chart.
The RSI on the monthly BTC dominance chart has crossed below its own moving average. RSI at 54.70 with the moving average at 57.33. When momentum drops below its average on the monthly timeframe, it signals the trend is losing steam.
The last time the RSI made this cross on the BTC dominance monthly chart, it marked the beginning of altseason. Capital started rotating out of Bitcoin and into smaller coins shortly after. If dominance is peaking here, the rotation that triggers the next altseason may already be starting.
Chart 3: OTHERS.D Is Breaking Out of a Four-Year Wedge
OTHERS.D measures the market cap dominance of all cryptocurrencies outside the top 10. It peaked near 20% in early 2021. It has been in a descending wedge ever since, making lower highs and lower lows for four consecutive years as smaller altcoins bled market share to Bitcoin and the larger caps.
That wedge has been compressing for four years. Every bounce failed. Every recovery rolled over. Until recently.
OTHERS.D has been bouncing off the bottom of that wedge and pushing toward a breakout on the monthly chart. The pattern is running out of room and price is pushing higher rather than lower for the first time since 2021.
The last time a similar structure broke upward was coming out of the 2018 to 2020 bear market. What followed was one of the strongest altcoin runs in crypto history, with hundreds of coins posting triple and quadruple digit gains between 2020 and 2022.
A breakout from this wedge does not guarantee the same outcome. The structure is the same. The outcome depends on what happens next.
What These Three Charts Have in Common
Each chart is showing the same thing from a different angle.
The monthly MACD says selling pressure is fading at the macro level. Bitcoin dominance says capital is approaching the point where it historically rotates into altcoins. OTHERS.D says smaller coins are attempting their first real reclamation of market share in four years.
The last two times the monthly MACD turned light red it marked a cycle bottom. The last time BTC dominance reversed at this RSI reading, altseason followed. The last time OTHERS.D broke a multi-year downtrend, what came after was one of the biggest altcoin runs in history.
These Charts Don’t Guarantee a Bull Run
Three charts pointing in the same direction is worth noting. It is not a buy signal, a guarantee, or a reason to make any financial decision.
Macro conditions still matter. The Iran conflict, oil above $100, and ongoing rate uncertainty are real headwinds that no chart fully accounts for. If global markets deteriorate sharply, crypto follows regardless of what the monthly MACD says. Bitcoin has already shown how quickly geopolitical events translate into price drops this cycle.
What the charts show is that the conditions which historically preceded crypto bull markets are starting to align. Selling pressure fading on the monthly. Dominance approaching a reversal point. Altcoin market share attempting a four-year breakout.
The last two times this combination appeared, what followed was a significant bull market.
Nobody knows if that happens again. But if you are trying to understand where the market might be heading, these are the three charts worth watching.
Guest post by Stache from Krypte.xyz. Views are the author’s own.
