Quant Analyst Identifies Potential End to Bitcoin’s Bullish Phase


A quantitative analyst has spotted a notable signal within a key Bitcoin on-chain metric that could signify the nearing conclusion of the current bullish phase for the leading cryptocurrency.

The metric under scrutiny is the “Net Unrealized Profit/Loss” (NUPL) indicator, which serves as a gauge for the collective unrealized profit or loss held by Bitcoin investors. By meticulously analyzing the historical on-chain data of each Bitcoin transaction, this metric computes the difference between the current price and the price at which each Bitcoin was last transferred.

When this disparity leans towards the positive, it indicates that investors are currently holding positions in profit. Conversely, negative values suggest a prevalence of underwater positions within the market.

Over the past few weeks, the Bitcoin NUPL has surged to elevated levels, reflecting the substantial gains the cryptocurrency has experienced during this period. Notably, the indicator has breached the 0.6 level, a threshold historically associated with infrequent sustainability. Instances of surpassing this level have often coincided with market peaks, as illustrated by the chart depicting the trend of Bitcoin NUPL over recent years.

Exceptions to this trend occurred during the notable bull runs of 2017 and the first half of 2021, where the indicator persisted in its ascent beyond the established threshold. However, such occurrences were rare, and sustained periods above this level typically preceded significant corrections in Bitcoin’s price.

Drawing insights from historical data, the analyst points out that previous corrections materialized approximately three to six weeks after entering the “overbought” zone, suggesting the potential for a similar correction in the near future. The inclination towards profit-taking tends to increase as investors witness their gains escalate, often prompting sell-offs when NUPL values are high.

Given these observations, it’s conceivable that Bitcoin may be on the cusp of a notable correction, or one may already be underway, given the recent downtrend in prices. At the time of composing this analysis, Bitcoin is exchanging hands at approximately $63,000, indicating a 12% decrease over the course of the past week.

While the cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile and subject to sudden shifts in sentiment, the NUPL indicator provides valuable insights into the underlying dynamics of investor behavior. As Bitcoin continues to assert its position as a mainstream asset class, understanding these on-chain metrics becomes increasingly vital for investors and analysts alike.

In conclusion, the Bitcoin NUPL’s recent surge to elevated levels suggests a potential inflection point in the current bullish phase. Investors and analysts are advised to closely monitor market dynamics and remain vigilant amidst the possibility of a significant correction in the near future.


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