Analyzing the Pattern of Negative Bitcoin Funding Rates Preceding Uptrends


An analyst from CryptoQuant has uncovered a pattern in the Bitcoin funding rates that could signal upcoming uptrends. The funding rate is an indicator that measures the periodic fee that traders on the Bitcoin futures market are exchanging with each other. When the funding rate is negative, short contract holders are paying a premium to long holders to hold onto their positions, indicating that bearish sentiment is dominant in the market. Conversely, when the funding rate is positive, the longs are paying a fee to shorts, indicating a bullish market.

The analyst has identified a pattern where the Bitcoin price starts rising when the metric is near zero within the negative zone. The analyst has marked the relevant portions of the trend in a graph showing the 72-hour moving average (MA) Bitcoin funding rate over the last few months. The chart reveals that whenever the funding rate has just turned negative, the price of Bitcoin has caught some upward momentum shortly after.

While there have been instances where the metric returned inside the positive zone not long after forming this pattern, the middle occurrence saw it go much deeper inside the negative territory first. It was only after the initial leg up in the price that the funding rate became positive again. This suggests that a neutral to negative value of the 72-hour MA Bitcoin funding rate has provided the proper ground for the price to rally during the last few months.

Although the funding rate has had positive values recently, indicating that the total number of long positions has overwhelmed short positions, the metric has gradually decreased in the last few days. Despite this drawdown, the 72-hour Bitcoin funding rate is still significantly above the zero line. This means that if the pattern that has held during the last few months is to form again, more bearish positions would need to be opened on the market to nudge the balance towards the negative zone.

In conclusion, the pattern discovered by the CryptoQuant analyst suggests that a neutral to negative value of the 72-hour MA Bitcoin funding rate could be a precursor to a price rally. If the price of Bitcoin starts to rise, these short contract holders could find themselves in trouble.

This phenomenon is known as a short squeeze, and it can cause a rapid and significant increase in the price of Bitcoin. As short contract holders rush to close their positions, they may be willing to pay increasingly high prices to buy Bitcoin, further fueling the upward trend.

In this pattern, bears can be trapped by their bearish positions and forced to close them out at a loss, contributing to the upward momentum of the market.

However, while this pattern may provide insights into potential market movements, it’s important to approach trading with caution and to manage risk carefully. This pattern is not a guarantee of future price movements, and traders and investors should consider a range of factors and conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.


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