In the ongoing election campaign for the world’s most powerful office, the role of cryptocurrencies is becoming increasingly prominent. Donald Trump, a savvy political operator, is leveraging this trend to his advantage, and prediction markets suggest he has a strong chance of success.
In a recent move, Trump has dubbed himself a “crypto president.”
Imagining similar scenarios in other countries requires a leap of imagination. Think of Olaf Scholz or, slightly more plausibly, Friedrich Merz referring to themselves as a “crypto chancellor,” or Ursula von der Leyen as a “crypto commissioner.”
The United States and Europe differ significantly in their approach to crypto in politics. In Europe, crypto hardly features in federal or state elections, nor in European parliamentary campaigns. However, in the U.S., crypto has made its way into the presidential election campaign for 2024, set for November 5.
While it’s an exaggeration to suggest that the control of the world’s most powerful military hinges on crypto stances, the issue has undeniably entered the political fray.
As a Bitcoin blog, this development is intriguing but not an endorsement of Trump or the U.S. The circumstances surrounding Trump’s declaration are particularly notable. He raised twelve million dollars in campaign funds from tech venture capitalists during an event at David Sacks’ luxurious Pacific Heights home in San Francisco, with a stunning view of the Golden Gate Bridge.
David Sacks, former PayPal COO and host of the “All In” podcast, has been vocal on Twitter, often echoing Kremlin perspectives on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At this gathering, Trump reportedly expressed strong support for crypto. Jacob Helberg, a consultant and analyst at the controversial software company Palantir, noted that Trump promised to “halt Biden’s anti-crypto crusade within an hour of starting his second term.”
Trump and the Republicans are likely to pursue more crypto-friendly policies. Meanwhile, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, appointed by Joe Biden, is seen by the crypto community as a stringent regulator. However, under Gensler and Biden, Bitcoin ETFs were approved, and the U.S. has maintained its leading position in the global crypto landscape, especially in mining. Even if the Democratic administration didn’t facilitate this, it didn’t obstruct it either.
During his previous term, Trump had ample opportunity to advocate for crypto but did not. His newfound support seems election-motivated.
The crypto industry seems to back Trump more than Biden. Trump is accepting crypto donations for his campaign, unlike Biden’s team, which remains silent on the matter. The lobby group “Stand with Crypto,” co-founded by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, critiques Biden’s policies without directly endorsing Trump, focusing on swing states.
Armstrong claims neutrality, advocating for crypto in both political camps, but their actions seem to favor Trump. He is evaluated by his promises, whereas Biden is judged by his policies.
This sentiment is reflected in prediction markets like Polymarket, where $165 million is bet on the 2024 election outcome. Trump has a 56% chance, Biden 34%, and the remaining 10% likely goes to other Democratic contenders such as Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama, or Gavin Newsom. This reflects a grim outlook that Biden might end his next term not in the White House or Senate but in retirement.
Future historians may find our times perplexing. President Biden, 82 on election day, faces 78-year-old Trump. In the EU, Ursula von der Leyen, almost youthful at 65, might start another term as Commission President, while in Germany, 67-year-old Olaf Scholz could lose to 70-year-old Friedrich Merz next year.
Simultaneously, 72-year-old Vladimir Putin wages war on Ukraine from Russia, with 70-year-old Xi Jinping’s support, while 74-year-old Bibi Netanyahu in Israel deals with Gaza Strip terror, potentially fueling more conflict.
Historians might label our era a gerontocracy, where elderly men—more often associated with retirement homes and stair lifts than leadership—run the world’s most powerful states, driven not by wisdom and calm but by anger and aggression.
