PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, makes a bold claim about Bitcoin’s future price movements, diverging from his previous predictions.
In a recent tweet, PlanB identifies a critical level for Bitcoin (BTC) that he believes the cryptocurrency will never breach again. According to him, BTC is unlikely to fall below $33,000, which coincides with its 200-week moving average. This assertion extends to scenarios following halving events and subsequent bear markets.
Bitcoin 200 week moving average is $33k .. highly unlikely that BTC will ever break that floor IMO. More info: https://t.co/ovkzvVglds pic.twitter.com/hqc2xsjp4S
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 4, 2024
Stable Ground at $33K
This latest analysis marks a departure from PlanB’s earlier forecast in February, where he suggested that BTC might not drop below $40,000, based on its five-month realized price. This prediction came after Bitcoin had rebounded from losses incurred due to investor reactions following the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. At that time, Bitcoin had reached $45,000, leading PlanB to speculate that sub-$40,000 levels might not be revisited.
To support his claims, PlanB refers to Bitcoin’s realized prices over different timeframes: $32,000 and $40,000 for two years and five months, respectively, with an overall price of $23,000. Given that Bitcoin’s rally had surpassed all these realized prices, PlanB reasoned that a dip below $40,000 was unlikely.
However, with evolving on-chain dynamics and the sustained bull market, PlanB has adjusted his projections, now asserting that BTC will not dip below $33,000. The overall realized price has risen to $29,000, with the two-year and five-month realized prices climbing to $44,000 and $60,000, respectively. He identifies these as conservative and aggressive floors during bull markets.
The ‘Never-Come-Back Line’ for Bitcoin
PlanB’s latest prediction finds resonance with pattern analyst Trader Alan’s assertion in March that BTC would encounter a “never come back line” in the current month. Referring to past cycles, Trader Alan suggested that Bitcoin would not revisit the $60,000 level, which corresponds to its five-month realized price as identified by PlanB.
#Bitcoin will mark a significant level- Neve come back line- in next month.🚨
After this line has been defined, $BTC wouldn’t come back forever. 🔥
There will be a “Post Halving Rally”🚀 after April 2024.
The return were +9000%, +4000% and +700% in previous halvings. pic.twitter.com/1eEEtsarOb— Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) March 19, 2024
While PlanB’s S2F analysis has been accurate on numerous occasions, it has also faced criticism and instances of inaccuracy within the community. Time will tell whether his current prognosis holds true.
